ISTANBUL, Jan. 30 -- U.S. troops in Germany that would form part of a northern front in a war against Iraq have received orders to pack up and prepare to head to Turkey as the Turkish government nears a crucial decision on whether to accept the forces.
Turkey's National Security Council, which is dominated by powerful senior generals, has scheduled a meeting Friday to consider a recommendation to the Turkish parliament, which has the final say on a U.S. petition to base troops in Turkey for a possible invasion.
U.S. military officials said today that nearly 2,000 troops from the 1st Infantry Division in Germany were preparing to depart for Turkey. That deployment would largely involve headquarters staff, intelligence, communications and other support units -- lead elements of a larger, armored force, the bulk of which will likely come from the 4th Infantry Division in Texas, military officials said.
The Turkish public has steadfastly opposed allowing the country to become a platform for war against Iraq. But analysts and diplomats said they expected the council to endorse the dispatch of 15,000 to 20,000 U.S. infantry and open military airfields to warplanes supported by thousands more U.S. military personnel.
That level of cooperation would be welcomed by Pentagon planners, who scaled back an original request for 80,000 troops to accommodate Turkish political realities. But U.S. officials have expressed worry that the recently elected government, in its consideration of public opinion, could wait too long to bring the matter before parliament.
"It will probably be positive, but I'm not sure the Americans will get everything they want," a senior Turkish official said, on condition of anonymity, about the National Security Council meeting.
Surveys show that more than 80 percent of Turks oppose a war in Iraq, largely because of concerns about the potential damage to the economy, especially to the crucial tourism industry. Losses associated with the 1991 Gulf War topped $50 billion by some estimates, and Turkey's economy already is in recession. Turkey's biggest concern is that a new war may revive separatist sentiments among its Kurdish minority if Iraq's Kurds are allowed to form a new republic , and especially if they seize the northern Iraqi oil centers of Kirkuk and Mosul.
But on questions of national security, the Turkish public grants great deference to its military establishment. When opinion polls ask Turks whom they trust most, the general staff finishes behind only President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, who also sits on the Security Council. No Turkish parliament has failed to endorse a council recommendation.
That calculation has anchored the Bush administration's dealings with Turkey from the earliest stages of planning for a campaign in Iraq. From the start, U.S. officials have bet that however much Turkey opposes the idea of a war, in the end it cannot afford to stay on the sidelines.
Turkish generals have moved forward with plans to move a substantial force several dozen miles into northern Iraq to prevent incursions by Kurdish separatists and to manage the flow of refugees seeking to escape fighting. The general staff announced Wednesday that it was sending fresh equipment and materiel to Turkish troops on the Iraqi border "to prepare them ahead of possible security developments in the region."
Turkey has also prepared a plan to appeal to NATO for help in defending against any retaliatory attack by Iraq. The alliance has twice in two weeks deferred a U.S. request for such aid, which would include deploying Patriot anti-missile systems and AWACS radar planes.
But Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party, which controls almost two-thirds of the Grand National Assembly, has yet to schedule a vote or untie itself from frequent public statements that a vote must await a fresh Security Council resolution authorizing force against Iraq.
U.S. officials, who have deferred to Turkey's democratic process, have been watching the clock nervously. A team of 150 U.S. military personnel completed surveys of Turkish bases last Friday, and preparations are underway for the Corps of Engineers to perform perhaps $300 million in upgrades to accommodate U.S. forces.
Graham reported from Washington.