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By James Harding/Washington
and Dan Roberts/London
http://www.ft.com/
Published: June 26 2003

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The Pentagon has sent a team of outside policy experts to conduct an independent review of postwar operations in Iraq amid growing criticism that the US failed to prepare adequately for occupation.

A group from Washington left on Thursday at the invitation of Donald Rumsfeld, defence secretary.

They are under instructions to provide an outside opinion on a strategy review being conducted by Paul Bremer, America's de facto viceroy in Iraq, and the Defense Department.

The mission comes as companies looking to invest in Iraq or win reconstruction contracts are being warned of an "even" chance of the country descending into open revolt.

The US military reported on Thursday that one special forces soldier was killed and eight more injured in an attack, while one Marine was killed and another two injured in an accident on the way to assist forces that had come under fire. In addition the Pentagon confirmed that two other soldiers were missing.

The risks for companies have been highlighted by apparent sabotage attacks on oil pipelines.

Intelligence gathered by Kroll, the corporate security group, advises clients that political transition is unlikely to go smoothly.

"It is pretty unlikely that the kind of liberal capitalist democracy that has been talked about is going to emerge any time soon," said the consultancy.

The Kroll report, which is being sold for $5,800 to corporate clients and agencies, outlines four potential short-term scenarios but says two - a stable "soft landing" or complete fragmentation - are extremely unlikely.

Instead, it concentrates on the even chances of a "wobbly landing" or an "Iraqi revolt". Its findings are based on field visits and the advice of security experts.

The Bush administration's decision to call in people from outside government, who wrote policy papers on postwar Iraq, suggests growing discomfort in Washington at the security problems facing its forces.

John Hamre, the president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former senior Pentagon official, is one of the five people headed to Baghdad.

"In recent days DoD [Department of Defense] felt that it might be useful to bring the perspective of the comparative analysis our folks conducted in the course of our work as they undertake a review of their plans for Iraq," Mr Hamre said in an e-mail sent on the eve of departure. "I am glad they asked us to help and we feel it is our obligation to do so."

The Pentagon could not immediately comment.

Mr Hamre and his team have been asked to consider broad questions of strategy.

Their analysis is intended to feed into what one called a "grand strategic plan", which will address issues such as the transition to an Iraqi authority and rebuilding of the domestic security apparatus.

Another member of the team said their job was to offer outside advice to Mr Bremer and Mr Rumsfeld as they work on "a road map" to a stable, representative Iraqi government.

The team - which includes Bob Orr, head of the Washington arm of the Council on Foreign Relations, Johanna Mendelson-Forman, of the United Nations foundation, and Bathsheba Crocker and Frederick Barton, two other CSIS members - is expected to hold a series of meetings in Baghdad and then tour the country, escorted by US military personnel.

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