News 2005

Crucial choice for Iraq leaders
April 7, 2005

By Nicolas Rothwell:

 

THE appointment yesterday of Kurdish resistance leader Jalal Talabani as President of the new Iraq, and the likely nomination today of new prime minister Ibrahim al-Jafari, open a fresh era after decades of war and tormenting dictatorship for the citizens of the country.

A crucial choice now confronts Mr Talabani, in his largely symbolic role at the head of the democratic Iraqi state, and Mr Jafari, a Shia Muslim charged with overseeing the progress of one of the Arab world's most secular societies.

Mr Talabani's position in particular is one of exquisite ambiguities. As a rebel leader in the northern Kurdish enclave, he animated a largely successful military campaign against Saddam Hussein's armies and detached Kurdistan from the central control of Baghdad 12 years ago.

In the intervening decade, as Kurdish father-figure and elder statesman, he has presided over the growth of independent institutions, and has seen a Kurdish intellectual and cultural renaissance.

Through the past two years, since the US-led invasion and the toppling of the Baathist regime, Mr Talabani's efforts have been aimed at winning further guarantees of independence for Kurdistan.

Yet now this leader takes the helm of symbolic power in Baghdad, apparently fully committed to a mid-term Kurdish future lying within the Iraqi state.

"After being liberated from the most hideous of dictatorships, our people -- the Arabs, the Kurds, the Turkmen and the Assyrians -- want to build a new Iraq free from dictatorship and tyranny, a democratic, united Iraq," Mr Talabani said in a speech after his ascent to the presidency yesterday.

Mr Talabani is said by sources close to him to accept that Kurdistan's best future is now within the frame of a rising democracy -- however many Kurds still yearn for an independent state.

US strategists hope Mr Talabani's influence will flavour Iraqi politics in the months ahead, and that the open principles of the fledgling Kurdish state in the northern enclave will be reflected in Baghdad.

Meanwhile, as prime minister Mr Jafari will take over as the individual embodiment of collective Shia Muslim will and voting strength.

For the first time in its recent history, Iraq is to have a government that reflects its true
demographic balance.

The Shia Muslims, economically disadvantaged and the subjects of sharp discrimination during era of Saddam, are now doubly enfranchised -- they hold the political reins and hope to benefit from the country's oil wealth, which is largely concentrated in their region.

Negotiations and infighting within the largest parliamentary formations have delayed constructive politics until now, but over the weeks ahead Mr Jafari's capacities as national leader will
at last be on display.

The interim prime minister, Iyad Allawi, was much admired outside Iraq for his urgent rhetoric, but appeared unable to galvanise domestic support because of the continued disruptions caused
by the insurgency.

Mr Jafari may well fit the opposite pattern: he lacks Dr Allawi's instinctual grasp of the vocabularies of democracy and human rights, but he will benefit from the effects of concerted campaigns against the rebels in recent months.

Since he so clearly speaks for the Shia current in Iraq, his regime will form a type of target
for Sunni rejectionists.

There are now fears that renewed militant attacks on central institutions could trigger retaliatory operations by government forces inside Sunni-populated areas.Mr Talabani's guiding role will be supplemented by his two deputies, drawn from Iraq's two other main communities.

His Sunni deputy, tribal leader Ghazi al-Yawar, was interim president and a strong voice for moderation. His Shia adjunct, Adel Abdel Mahdi, will act as a firm balancing voice for Shia religious interests.

 

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